A cynic might say that tonight’s Republican contests in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri deserve an asterisk. In Minnesota and Colorado, which will hold caucuses, voters will pick their preferred presidential candidate in a nonbinding straw poll, while picking delegates to county and regional conventions in a separate vote. In Missouri, no delegates are on the line at all; the state will hold a separate caucus for that purpose on March 17.
Strong scenario: He wins all three states, although Missouri is very close.
Most likely scenario: He wins Colorado by a clear margin and loses Missouri by about 10 points; Minnesota is very close but he loses there once all votes are counted.
Weak scenario: He takes a very narrow loss in Colorado in addition to Minnesota and Missouri.
Strong scenario: He wins all three states, although Colorado is very close.
Most likely scenario: He wins Missouri by a clear margin and Minnesota narrowly and loses Colorado by a clear margin.
Weak scenario: He gets shut out.