Read the Bills Act Coalition

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Sabato's crystal ball predicts GOP to Take House, Maybe Senate in 2010 Election

Love him or hate him  few in the nation have been able to predict the political climate better than Larry Sabato head of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics....From Larry Sabato's Crystal ball prediction:

2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a question of degree. Several scenarios were possible, depending in large measure on whether, or how quickly, the deeply troubled American economy recovered from the Great Recession. Had Democratic hopes on economic revitalization materialized, it is easy to see how the party could have used its superior financial resources, combined with the tendency of Republicans in some districts and states to nominate ideological fringe candidates, to keep losses to the low 30s in the House and a handful in the Senate….Obama’s job approval ratings have drifted down well below 50% in most surveys. The generic ballot that asks likely voters whether they will cast ballots for Democrats or Republicans this year has moved increasingly in the GOP direction. While far less important, other controversies such as the mosque debate and immigration policy have made the climate worse for Democrats. Republican voters are raring to vote, their energy fueled by anti-Obama passion and concern over debt, spending, taxes, health care, and the size of government. Democrats are much less enthusiastic by almost every measure, and the Democratic base’s turnout will lag. Plus, Democrats have won over 50 House seats in 2006 and 2008, many of them in Republican territory, so their exposure to any sort of GOP wave is high…. Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net…. This is a “net” number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama’s Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today......


Read more here http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2010090201/

3 comments:

Jax P said...

Great blog! You should cover the race in VA02! Top race getting national coverage. Scott Rigell is doing great things, needs our help to win in November!

Cheers,

Jax

Jody L. Wilcox said...

I'm on it.....I think the GOP from dog catcher to President needs to find new and fresh conservative voices and finally put to bed so many retreads and RINOs that litter the Republican landscape now a days....a new blood infusion is needed to keep the GOP red...

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