Read the Bills Act Coalition

Monday, August 4, 2008

Is Virgnia really a swing state or is everyone just trying to convince us that we are?

Relying on Kaine my not be such a sound strategy... From WaPO:

'Virginia hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and President Bush carried the state twice, by nine and eight points. But the campaigns of Obama and his Republican opponent, Sen. John McCain, agree that it has become one of the nation's new swing states, joining the likes of Ohio, Florida and other battlegrounds in determining who will win the White House. The result in the Old Dominion has been a burst of political activity unlike any in modern times. .....
'The Obama campaign believes it can win by duplicating the success of Kaine, Sen. James Webb and former governor Mark R. Warner, who have led a Democratic revival in Virginia that would be complete with a win on the presidential level. The campaign hopes to capitalize on Bush's lack of popularity, the changing demographics in Northern Virginia, high turnout -- particularly among younger voters and African Americans -- and a volunteer base that delivered a big win in the Democratic primary in February. Virginia Republicans acknowledge that the state has become more competitive but predict that it remains inherently conservative, particularly when it comes to national security and other issues at stake in a presidential race.'


Alter of Freedom said...

One aspect that in my view the polling always gets wrong in Virginia is the influence of the military establishment in Virginia. Dems always discount the number of people working in the US government living in NVA that worked for DoD or the Pentagon in general as well as the Norfolk Naval Base area. Very rarely to polls include serviceman, which is why often times local, State, and even Congressional seats rarely get the turnout by the military folks as does a national election. Remember one has to consider just how many of these folks are out of the country serving the nation. I believe this aspect of the voting block is the swing, but has traditionally backed Republicans for the WH.
NVA certainly will go Dem, but there are pockets in NVA where Mccain will get large numbers of votes, especially Prince William County and Stafford County. Fairfax and Loudon are securley Dem as well as Arlington. Obama will certainly win the major cities; not racially motivated but simply based on historical performance in elections which provides him with Richmond, Petersburg, Norfolk. McCain will win the cities out west and will be closer in UVA country than people probably think but McCain should still win it. Mccain will also take the burbs surrounding places like Richmond; where Henrico, Chesterfield, Powhatan, Colonial Heights, Hanover will go Republican.
The question is numbers. NVA represents a huge vote count and though in the end I think McCain will win Virginia he will have to work harder in Robertson land east of Norfolk to lock up votes he needs to balance off the State. No way is Obama going to make in roads to the folks that supported Huckabee in Western Virginia in the Primary, but he cannot afford for the Chesepeake/Portsmouth areas to stay home in November.

Jody L. Wilcox said...

Great comment ...I believe you are dead on.