The Associated Press breaks down the upcoming general election using stats from the lay Presidential election (2004) between between George W. Bush and John Kerry. Electoral votes are in parentheses. While this is a good approach, I think this election will be quite different than the one in 2004 and so the map as depicted below may by turned upside down come this November...
- Colorado (9): Bush by 5. Population growth and Hispanic voters give Democrats hope.
- Florida (27): Bush by 5. Always a hard-fought state given its large cache of votes.
- Iowa (7): Bush by 1. High Democratic priority.
- Michigan (17): Kerry by 3. McCain hopes Reagan Democrats and independents help despite a dreadful economy.
- Minnesota (10): Kerry by 3. One of McCain's top targets with a Republican governor.
- Missouri (11): Bush by 7. A perennial competitive state.
- Nevada (5): Bush by 2. Another Western state Democrats aim to pick up.
- New Hampshire (4): Kerry by 1. McCain is beloved; the state made him in 2000 and saved him in 2008.
- New Mexico (5): Bush by 1. Democrats hope Hispanics and new residents help here, too.
- Ohio (20): Bush by 2. Recent GOP statewide defeats may make this bellwether poised for a switch.
- Oregon (7): Kerry by 4. McCain's independent streak and environmental focus could be appealing here.
- Pennsylvania (21): Kerry by 3. Republicans see a chance, given McCain's broad appeal.
- Virginia (13): Democrats see opportunity, particularly with Obama.
- Wisconsin (10): Kerry by 1. Another Great Lakes state McCain is targeting.
- Arkansas (6): Bush by 9. Competitive if Clinton is the Democratic nominee.
- California (55): Kerry by 10. McCain talks big but a Republican hasn't won it since 1988.
- Delaware (3): Kerry by 7. Among coastal states McCain may have an outside shot at if the tide turns toward the GOP.
- Georgia (15): Bush by 17. Democrats hope Obama's draw among blacks makes this competitive.
- Kentucky (8): Bush by 20. The state twice voted for Bill Clinton, and could be a target under his wife.
- Louisiana (9): Bush by 15. Democrats claim blacks would help Obama here.
- Maine (4): Kerry by 9. McCain's fight against climate change and rebel reputation give him hope.
- Mississippi (6): Bush by 19. Another state where Democrats say Obama could benefit from blacks.
- Montana (3): Bush by 20. The state last voted Democratic in 1992 but now has a Democratic governor.
- New Jersey (15): Kerry by 7. McCain's broad appeal makes this attractive to Republicans.
- North Carolina (15) Bush by 12. Democrats see an opportunity if Obama is the nominee.
- Washington (11): Kerry by 7. Another where McCain's moderate image could help.
- West Virginia (5) Bush by 13. Might be competitive with Clinton on the ticket; her husband won it twice.
- Alabama (9): Bush by 25.
- Alaska (3): Bush by 25.
- Arizona (10): Bush by 11.
- Idaho (4): Bush by 38.
- Indiana (11): Bush by 21.
- Kansas (6): Bush by 25.
- Nebraska (5): Bush by 33.
- North Dakota (3): Bush by 28.
- Oklahoma (7): Bush by 32.
- South Carolina (8): Bush by 17.
- South Dakota (3): Bush by 22.
- Tennessee (11): Bush by 14.
- Texas (34): Bush by 23.
- Utah (5): Bush by 46.
- Wyoming (3): Bush by 40.
- Connecticut (7): Kerry by 10.
- District of Columbia (3): Kerry by 80.
- Hawaii (5): Kerry by 9.
- Illinois (21): Kerry by 11.
- Maryland (10): Kerry by 13.
- Massachusetts (12): Kerry by 25.
- New York (31): Kerry by 18.
- Rhode Island (4): Kerry by 20.
- Vermont (3): Kerry by 20.
Source: AP Research