I Doubt it, but I love his predictions of a third place Hillary and a 1st place Romney and 2nd place Huckabee and he seems to get the subtle challenges of a caucus. Novak’s insights seem to echo what The Contemporary Conservative has been saying recently; we’ll all see soon enough if either of us knows what we are talking about. Read article here: http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24241
Ever since finishing second in the Iowa straw poll last August, Huckabee steadily climbed here in Iowa, aided by his evangelical pedigree, his sincerity and the fresh-face factor, and less critical press coverage than any other candidate. Polls of likely Republican caucus-goers consistently showed Huckabee ahead throughout December, but more recent surveys are a mixed bag, showing slippage by Huckabee.And…
Polling the caucuses is notoriously difficult, because caucusing, unlike voting in a primary, can take all night. Turnout is a bigger commitment, and it's harder to predict. While pollsters try to correct for this, the room for error is huge….this is what I’ve been saying all along, Novak must read The Contemporary Conservative.
The similarities between Obama 2008 and Howard Dean in 2004 are real and could
show themselves Thursday night. Obama is the new, fresh face in the race with youthful, enthusiastic, and idealistic supporters. For Dean, that same formula translated into caucus-day bust. Will the same happen to Obama?
Hillary's organization may be the strongest, but her negatives are the highest. Her hardball tactics against Obama will hurt her. For the Democrats, who have a viability threshold of at least 15% in each precinct, second choice matters, and that is where Hillary's negatives will hurt her. She doesn't appear to be the second choice for very many voters at all.
Well Robert, if your out there thanks for reading and please give the blog a plug in your next column…. J